Some Owners Still in Denial

[Bruzilla]

I was watching Velocity last night, and they were running a bunch of episodes of a show called What's My Car Worth? There's these two supposed "experts" who rate cars at auctions and guestimate what they'll sell for, then their guess is compared to the actual selling price.

The episode I was watched dealt with a pristine 1970 Pontiac GTO with Ram Air IV. Nice car if you're into that sort of thing. Just restored to like new. Black on black. Excellent mechanical shape and a 1 of 300 something car. Here were the prices discussed:

Auction Estimate: $125,000 to $150,000
Minimum Seller Would Take: $125,000
"Expert's" Guestimate: $100,000

I was like "what? Has anyone involved with this process been following the market lately? It isn't the 1990s anymore!" Have they not noticed that most of the investment income that's been driving car prices has ditched classic steel in favor of gold? I looked at that car and saw $60,000-70,000 tops.

The car goes on the block, and as I expected, bidding start's dying after the car passes through the 50s, and barely makes it to $75,000. The "experts" go to talk to the owner and he says he's just been offered $85,000 but he's not taking it and he's just going to take the car home. I'm thinking his $85,000 offer was BS because that car was struggling to make it to $70,000, but if it were genuine he should have jumped on it and seen it as a gift.

I'm wondering what in the world makes guys like this think their cars are going to skyrocket back up in value? The investment income that artificially ballooned up prices is either gone or on its way to greener pastures. The guys who grew up with these cars are dying off, and the younger generation taking their place is much smaller, which means less of a delta between supply and demand. And it's looking like higher gas prices are here to stay, which further reduces demand. Granted, nobody saw the stock market collapse in 1987 that drove so many investors to classic cars, but I just don't see anywhere for prices to go but to continue their downward trend.

I can understand the auction companies listing cars at higher-than-reasonable prices because they want to attract sellers and excite buyers. I can also understand how idiots like the hosts of this show get jobs. But if that owner seriously believes that his car is somehow going to increase in value to $125,000+... he's frigging dreaming.

 

[snakeyes]

what year was that episode from

 

[Bruzilla]

Most of the shows they've been running are from last year.

 

[Moparsmitty]

A lot of people have the idea in their heads that something that they own is worth a certain amount and they aren't going to let reality get in the way of that idea. They either don't know what's happened in the classic car market in the past 5-10 years, or they have chosen to ignore that reality. You see it in real estate, antiques, coins and gems, etc. etc. How many houses have you seen sit on the real estate market for years and years because the owner doesn't understand the market and thought that his house would never lose value?
I can't really blame the auction houses for trying to pump up the market. That's their livelihood and if I was running an auction I would be doing the same thing. They realize that the collector car market is flat and likely to be that way for some time.
That's the great thing about a true market though, reality will always hit you square in the face. Whatever you are selling in only worth what someone else thinks it's worth.

 

[snakeyes]

not sure which auct. show I was watching and I thought the prices were stupid ,checked the show line up it was 5 yrs. old

 

[RustyRatRod]

I might be different if it was something that had any street cred at all. Those are almost as bad as phords.

 

[Budnicks]

I might be different if it was something that had any street cred at all. Those are almost as bad as phords.

Rusty what are you talking about ??, the 69-70-71 GTO & "The Judge", especially Ram Air IV equiped cars "were great for street cred" along with the Buick GS Stage I & II or GNX.... they aren't a Hemi Cuda or Hemi Road Runner, but they had street cred...

 

[Bruzilla]

not sure which auct. show I was watching and I thought the prices were stupid ,checked the show line up it was 5 yrs. old

I was watching some other Velocity marathon a couple of days ago. It dealt with this husband/wife team in Miami who sell vintage cars. They sold a guy a Cobra replica, and were talking about how much more the car would be worth if it were real, and just after that they ran one of those little factoid type bump bubbles that said a Cobra recently sold at auction for over $500,000! They neglected to mention that car wasn't just any Cobra, but a one of eight King Cobra that was Caroll Shelby's personal car. ;)

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I might be different if it was something that had any street cred at all. Those are almost as bad as phords.

I remember seeing Superbirds selling regularly for $300,000 in the late 1990s. When was the last time you saw that?

 

[Budnicks]

Bruzilla, I agree for the most part, but there was a "I think" a 1970 GTO "the Judge" Ram Air IV convertible that sold for $180k, at an auction last year, grant you it was a couple of millionaires bidding, in a cock fight/pissing contest, but it sold for a "orbital" price, IMHO the new trend seems to be Resto-Mods/Rods & Pick-up {not as much} are bringing great money, if they are quality builds, the market always changes & theres an *** for every seat... IMHO The biggest hit "was to Mopars", they are down big-time thou, 25%-50% from their highs, even rare Hemi's, 440-6bbl/Six Pack's or Superbird's or Daytona's that is when they ever are sold anyway, most don't even sell... it ain't 2007 & before the Owebama economy anymore people...

 

[64 Post]

Having been on both ends of the deal there is a certain price I'll take for cars/parts. I fell for the, "My dad has cancer" story once and let a car go cheaper than I should have. I negotiated first right of refusal, too. A month later I see the guy flipping it for $3K more than he paid for it. :angryfire:

Same deal with parts. I'm sorry you're on a budget but I'm not going to let a $2K rotating assembly go for $500.

I'm at the point now with all the lowballers that I'd rather throw stuff away than give it away. The first thing out of their mouths is, "What's your bottom dollar?" They haven't even seen the part and they're already kicking you in the nuts, and if they do see the parts they're bitching over every little defect or dent trying to beat you down. I've beaten exterior trim pieces with a hammer right in front of guys who complained the parts were "beat up" and offered 20% of what I was asking.

I was selling a $7K project/roller a few years ago and this guy comes over with a carload of his brothers/cousins/neighbors/friends. They all proceed to nitpick the car apart telling him how much it's going to cost to find parts/fix everything. I ended up throwing them all out of the garage. I told them all at the rate they were going I was going to have to give them the car free and owe them another $10K toward the restoration costs.

I saw a great sig line about Mopar owners a few years ago: Wanted: Something for nothing, must be in mint/NOS condition and you pay the shipping and installation costs.

 

[tpodwdog]

being the owner of 3 classic cars, i have to look at prices like this...:

i know what i paid for it....i know how much i have in it........ i know how much work i put in it to get it like new.........and i know the price for me letting it go. if i dont get what I want for it......its not costing me a single red cent to have it sit there.

i know damn well my cars aint worth what I think theyre worth. ...but they are worth it to me, and im sure alot of you guys think the same way.....maybe....i dont know.........im not in the buy/sell market. i have these cars coz i love them, and breathing life back into them is something i really enjoy! im not going to let the market dictate what i can get for my cars. if someone wants to buy one of my cars and has the money that i want for it...i might consider selling it....but ill be damned if im gonna have a car that i have X-amount of dollars in...and let it go for less just because the market says so.....thats not economical and not very smart. i get more of a charge driving these cars than i will ever get walking around with a big wad of cash in my pocket. its only money...and ya cant take it with ya!

 

[Bruzilla]

Prices have been correcting since before anyone knew Obama existed. We just haven't seen a natural increase in prices, regulated by traditional supply and demand issues. We saw a very artificial increase driven by auctions and fueled by investment income. Now that income is migrating out of the market and prices on all cars are steadily dropping. The smart owners are seeing this and selling for what they can get now because they know even when supply and demand issues start taking control again, prices aren't going to be near what they've been.

As for the convertible, two Judge drop tops sold at the Robson collection auction back in 2010. One sold for $260,000 and the other for $620,000. Ostensibly that sounds like a lot, but when you look harder you find the prices more telling. In the case of the $260,000 car, it had been expected to bring in between $400,000 and $600,000 because it was a one of twelve car, and the $620,000 car was expected to bring in between $750,000 and $1,000,000 because it was a documented one of one car. Neither car came close to meeting their appraised values, and both of these cars were true rare cars from a very well known and documented collection and not some "average" collector car.

It also bears remembering that the trend in auctions used to be guessing how much over the estimated price a car was going to sell for. Now most cars aren't even hitting the low end of the estimate.

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im not in the buy/sell market. i have these cars coz i love them, and breathing life back into them is something i really enjoy!

Now see, guys like you are easy to understand. The guy on this show went to all the trouble to take his car to auction and wanted to sell it, which makes him a lot different from you. My point is what makes this guy believe that his car is somehow going to magically increase in value from $75,000 to $125,000? We're talking about a 66% increase in price, not 10% or even 20%. Aside from self-delusion, what can this guy be seeing that makes him believe the market is going to pick up that much?

 

[tpodwdog]

i have never bought and restored a car with the intention of re-sale. if i do sell one of my cars...a substantial profit would be the deciding factor...my mother raised ugly kids....not stupid ones!....whoa bundy

 

[Bruzilla]

Same deal with parts. I'm sorry you're on a budget but I'm not going to let a $2K rotating assembly go for $500.

I love looking at parts ads because they are so telling. I keep seeing guys asking $750+ for disassembled 440s that need to be rebuilt, while disassembled ones priced at $200 are selling, along with running ones for $300-$500. You see the lower-priced ads appear and disappear almost over night, but those $750+ ads keep lingering on forever while the market of available buyers keeps getting chopped out from under them. You can tell the $700+ guys are the folks who bought at the top of the mark and think not selling for a loss is the same thing as making money, but it really isn't. They're going to lose money. The question is just how much.

 

[tpodwdog]

that "something for nothing" thing carries over to just about everything. back when i had my construction biz, i had this guy that wanted windows where there were no windows spec'ed. i told him the extra price and his train of thought was..."well...youre here, why cant ya just put them in for free".....my comeback was .." ill tellyawhat... ill go to the lumber yard and tell the guiys there what you said, and if they are willing to give you the materials for this EXTRA work you want for free...ill do it for free too....WADDAYATHINKABOUTHAT????? ".... oooooooooooooooooooooh the stories i could tell you guys along those same lines.

 

[64 Post]

I love looking at parts ads because they are so telling. I keep seeing guys asking $750+ for disassembled 440s that need to be rebuilt, while disassembled ones priced at $200 are selling, along with running ones for $300-$500. You see the lower-priced ads appear and disappear almost over night, but those $750+ ads keep lingering on forever while the market of available buyers keeps getting chopped out from under them. You can tell the $700+ guys are the folks who bought at the top of the mark and think not selling for a loss is the same thing as making money, but it really isn't. They're going to lose money. The question is just how much.

Yeah, I notice that stuff, too. Seems to be a lot of guys think a bare HP2 RB or 230 B block is worth $500-$600 without it even being checked out by a machine shop. Until a block checks out, it's worth no more than $100 or scrap value to me (Hemi/Maxie blocks are the exception).

 

[RustyRatRod]

Rusty what are you talking about ??, the 69-70-71 GTO & "The Judge", especially Ram Air IV equiped cars "were great for street cred" along with the Buick GS Stage I & II or GNX.... they aren't a Hemi Cuda or Hemi Road Runner, but they had street cred...

The hell you say. They all stand to get their asses handed to them by a base model 383 Road Runner.

 

[Bruzilla]

that "something for nothing" thing carries over to just about everything. back when i had my construction biz, i had this guy that wanted windows where there were no windows spec'ed. i told him the extra price and his train of thought was..."well...youre here, why cant ya just put them in for free".....my comeback was .." ill tellyawhat... ill go to the lumber yard and tell the guiys there what you said, and if they are willing to give you the materials for this EXTRA work you want for free...ill do it for free too....WADDAYATHINKABOUTHAT????? ".... oooooooooooooooooooooh the stories i could tell you guys along those same lines.

It's funny when you mention that because I was thinking of when I was developing training materials for Ford, and I got to get a close look at different customer types. My guess would be the customers you want the most are the "money is no concern" types who can afford to pay for whatever they want. They come in, drop loads of cash, and walk out. The worst ones would be the something for nothing crowd who want to nickle and dime you to death.

What I found out was the opposite was true. Salesmen dreaded the "money is no concern" customers because these folks were never happy with what they got. You could count on them coming back again and again to bitch about some imagined problem or concern they had, and the salesman would eat up loads of clock trying to make them happy. A lot of these folks were either attention junkies or felt they were entitled to constant pampering because they were such an "easy" sale. The nickle and dimers would drive the sales staff crazy getting the car off the lot, but once they left you didn't see them again until it was time to buy another car.

I would see some well-dressed customer pull up in an expensive car and watch the senior sales people head for the parts department to hide.

 

[daredevil]

Wow what a gloom and doom post. Even though true still depressing.

 

[tpodwdog]

EXACTLYYYYYY.... i have had many clients that scrape and save to have some work done. these are the same people that make ya coffee in the morning or surprise you with lunch, or beer after work. its the ones with money that wont turn on the freekin hose for ya on a 95 degree day !

another funny story. i had this "eccentric" dude want to put sky lites in his living room and bathroom......heres the kikker...HE WANTED THEM BLACKED OUT.....as in....black...totally....no light to get through....ones that DID NOT OPEN ! when i asked why he wants sky lites...but blacked out totally his response was..... "well...theres satellites that can peer down right into your house and see what youre doing"....i just walked away at that point and installed the blacked out sky lites........... got paid and left......