well oil is now in the 45 range. Like most of us here enjoying the price drop for however long it lasts. 2.83 today diesel. I still cant figure why lower operating costs drive the market down. I spend the extra money on other things. I dont know how long this will last and surely most dont have a clue either.
Operating costs have nothing to do with the market price. Market price is set by who's willing to buy oil futures and who isn't. It costs the Saudis about $5 to pump a barrel of oil, it costs Gulf of Mexico producers about $12 a barrel, and it costs shale oil guys about $27 a barrel last I heard but I believe their numbers have come down quite a bit since then as their capital investments are getting paid off.
Where production costs do come into play is in countries like Iran, Venezuela, and Russia that have much higher production costs either due to geographic limitations or general malfeasance of the industry. These countries have been screwing Saudi Arabia for decades. Every time the production numbers had to be cut to stabilize the price of oil, these countries always demanded Saudi Arabia take the lion's share of the hit. They made matters worse by constantly over-producing their own quotas because they needed every nickle they could get. The other issue is while Saudi Arabia has been busy investing their oil revenues into business operations all around the world, many of the other OPEC countries have been blowing their revenues on weapons programs, military build ups, social spending, and not making any efforts to diversify their economies.
So what's happened this year is when US production started dramatically increasing as global demand was decreasing, when it came time for OPEC to start cutting production to keep prices up, OPEC once again turned to the Saudis and told them they would have to bear the brunt of the cuts and the Saudis finally said no! They said they were done losing market share to protect OPEC and they would not cut production, which meant the over-supply would get worse, which meant less money to be made, which sent investors fleeing and as a result the price has been dropping like a stone.
The upside to all this is the Saudis are the ones who really drive the market, and as oil prices go down, costs of doing business by everyone else are going down so profits and growth will be going up, and as they do all the business operations the Saudis have invested in will see their profits going up. All this means the Saudis are now making money whether oil prices are up or down, so they have no reason to support OPEC anymore and hopefully that whole corrupt mess will now collapse or at least crumble enough to where the best they can do is force oil to be at about $40 a barrel.